The Prospect Corner with Adam G.

27 12 2007

Todd Van Poppel

My write-up on Joba Chamberlain was recently posted on the Baseball Think Factory Newsblog page with the following description:”Everything you need to know about Joba Chamberlain. Is he the next Roger Clemens or another Todd Van Poppel?”

It was nice to see that others had taken an interest in my musings, but there were four words in the title that made me nervous:

1) Everything
2) Todd
3) Van
4) Poppel

The “everything” was a concern simply because I didn’t actually write much about Joba, just posted his stats, made some comparisons and made a few basic projections. In a biographical sense there was a lot I didn’t say about Joba, so I was concerned that readers may be disappointed when they realized my post didn’t cover “everything”. But that’s inconsequential and I think most people could look past that part. What really mattered about the title was the “Todd Van Poppel” bit. When I sat down to write about Chamberlain, I never once thought about comparing him to Van Poppel, even though he is one of the most notorious “busts” in baseball card history. How could I overlook Van Poppel?!

After seeing the title, I immediately feared that I had failed to find any comparable pitchers that could have provided us with a realistic idea of Joba’s “bust”-factor, and had thus exposed myself to an onslaught of naysayers and their stacks of stat books and unyielding knowledge of all things baseball. In a moment of panic, I pulled up all the stats I could find on Todd Van Poppel.

I was about 10 years old when the Van Poppel craze began, so naturally I don’t remember much about that event in baseball history. However, looking back at his stats, it’s difficult for me to imagine what all the fuss was about. Van Poppel’s A- number were good, but after that his BB/K ratios completely fell apart and he never put up any kind of “elite” numbers that would have given any support to the hype surrounding him. Even if I had remembered to include Van Poppel on my “bust” list, his stats are not at all comparable to Chamberlain’s.

Apparently, when the A’s signed Van Poppel, they signed him to a major league contract and not a minor league contract. Consequently, the A’s could only use a limited number of minor league options on Van Poppel, so they had to rush him through the minors and he never really had time to develop. In scouting reports, Van Poppel was described as having a blazing fastball with no movement, which helps explain the discrepancy between his A- numbers and the rest of his career. I’m not sure what other pitches he developed, but they obviously weren’t good enough to compliment his fastball. Van Poppel also suffered from set-backs due to injury, and that probably added to his demise.

Looking at Van Poppel’s stats got me thinking about a few other pitching “busts” of the last 20 years and one of the first names that came to my mind was Brien Taylor.

Brien Taylor Minor League Stats

Taylor was signed the year after Van Poppel, and had similar hype surrounding him. After his year at AA ball, Taylor suffered a torn labrum in a fight and his numbers only got worse after his stint in rookie ball at the age of 23. His labrum tear was supposedly one of the worst ever seen by doctors and considering that the success rate today for labrum tear surgeries is about 70%, it’s easy to assume that 15 years ago the success rate was much lower. In a sense, Taylor was a bust, but really he was just a kid that lost it all due to one bad decision in a heated moment.

While I feel more assured in my analysis of Joba Chamberlain (at the very least we know he most likely will not be the next Todd Van Poppel), I am interested to know if there are other pitchers out there that I missed that posted similar numbers to Chamberlain but went on to have mediocre careers. I’m sure they are out there, so if you find any, let me know.


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6 responses

27 12 2007
Larry

The fuss was Van Poppel was a once in a lifetime high school talent, but wasn’t too keen on being drafted by a loser team like the Atlanta Braves in 1990, who had finished in last place. Van Poppel insisted on going to college but the Oakland Athletics were the sexy team at the time and the Braves had to settle for some guy named Larry Jones as their first round pick, No. 1 overall in the nation.

27 12 2007
Mario C.

Excellent post, Larry. I never knew about the Atlanta/Van Poppel connection.

28 12 2007
Nick Underhill

Dude, don’t worry about BBTF, I don’t think there has ever been a blog post on there that they didn’t dissect and rip apart sentence by sentence. Those guys think that they know everything. One of my articles that was posted on there, early in the season, I spelt Diasuke Matsuzaka’s name wrong and they tore me apart for like 100 comments because of it.

28 12 2007
tastelikedirt

I like this here website a lot.
Thanks!
Jim

28 12 2007
Adam G.

I wasn’t aware of the link with Larry Jones either until I was doing some reading on Van Poppel today. Imagine how different the 90’s might have been for the Braves if they had not had Chipper Jones and had a rotation that included Van Poppel.
Thanks for your comments guys!

28 12 2007
Mario C.

Thanks for the articles, Adam! Yesterday we had the second biggest day in Wax Heaven’s history. Your Joba piece came withing 50 views of outdoing the Mitchell Report. Hope to see new articles in 2008 and beyond!

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