Do you hear that sound? That’s the sound of thousands in the hobby of collecting crying, bitching, and moaning over their stud going down with an injury. I warned you guys long ago and you still didn’t listen. I never take relief in any player going down with an injury but I think the writing was on the wall a while ago that Joba was not going to be this 30-game winning “beast” that everyone proclaimed and predicted he would be in 2008.
Now, Joba is just on the 15-day Disabled List and could come back from rotator cuff tendinitis but let’s face it, his season has been lost and the hundreds of dollars many collectors and prospectors spent hoarding his ‘07 Bowman Chrome rookie cards just went down the drain.
Of course, this doesn’t spell the end of Joba’s career and most true fans will stick by Chamberlain’s side but this should be a lesson learned next time you want to drop big money on some “can’t miss” prospect who is expected to have a breakout season the next year. Not every young stud out of the minors turns out to be the next Albert Pujols.
Unfortunately, until we can tell the future, this rookie card hype will never end.
I was pretty bummed to hear the news. The Yankees play up here in the Cities M-W next week and I was really hoping to see either Joba or Pettitte pitch, if not both. Sadly, because of all the inappropriate jokes I have told in my life, karma has caught up to me. Time to see if they have any games left in Chicago this year; if Pettitte is pitching, I’m taking a roady down there.
That being said, here’s hoping fickle collectors dump their Joba cards as quick as they can, so I can swoop in and get them reasonably. My luck, I’ll load up on his cards and he’ll wind up being nothing more than a pitching version of Kevin Maas.
I’m not sure how much this injury will affect Joba’s career long term. I still think he is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and he could have multiple Cy Young Awards in his future. I don’t own any Joba auto’s, but if I did, I don’t think that I’d be dumping them just because of the injury.
As a Rays fan though, this is good news. Losing Joba will certainly hurt the Yankees’ chances of making the playoffs.
And not every “can’t miss” prospect misses. Look at what Evan Longoria has done this year. He was rated as a better prospect by Baseball America than Joba, by the way. I’m glad that I bought a bunch of his auto’d cards before the season. The next one will be David Price. The value of his cards will skyrocket when he gets called up before the end of the season…
There’s one thing that can’t be over emphasized enough: Do not invest in baseball cards as if they were stocks being traded on Wall Street or anywhere else. The point is even stronger when we’re discussing pitching prospects.
Price’s Bowman autos are already sky high. And like News said, pitching prospects are one of the worst. One minor arm injury can RUIN a career.
Mark Prior? Anyone, anyone? Todd Van Poppel?
I also forgot to mention another Bowman pitfall. There is also always a big possibility that prospects can be traded away to VERY uncollectable teams as far as the secondary market is concerned.
I have found that the best buy/sell success with top prospects has been in purchasing their lower-end RC’s. While everyone chases the Bowman Chrome and Sterling autos of Joba, Longoria, Price, Bruce and such, their lower end cards (e.g. Bowman base cards, Bowman Heritage, etc….) go for exponentially less than the chrome autos and serial numbered SP’s.
Then, when these players make their MLB debut, the market for their cards expands beyond just prospectors and collectors to the much broader baseball fan base who is looking for a piece of their new favorite player or next “surefire” HOF’er (yes Jay Bruce I am talking about you).
Example, last year before Ryan Braun went Hercules on NL pitching, his 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft cards (not his first year) were selling at about 25-50 cents each. After his first couple of weeks, those cards were being snatched on Ebay for $5-7.50 each. Why? Because the increase of media exposure and Sportscenter highlights made him a household name amongst sports fans, driving up the market demand for his stuff.
David Price’s ‘07 Bowman Draft and Donruss Elite Extra base set cards sell for less than $1 each in Ebay auctions and in bulk quantities. Grab a lot of 50-60 of them instead of one Bowman Sterling auto and you’ll come out ahead when it comes time to sell.
Joba’s injury is proof that to be a prospect speculator in this industry, you have to throw sentimentality out the window and find the best times to get in and out of the market on players. Then you can use that extra $100 bucks to purchase the George Brett autographed baseball you’ve always wanted for your collection!
as the rip master wolud say WOW
Prospectors in general tend to think way too high of themselves. They claim to make so much money, yet I see they are busting wax, hoarding player cards that will never amount to anything, and many times are just selling to other self proclaimed prospectors.
Hi Jeff,
I respect your opinion, but I must admit that I prospect because I cannot afford wax (who can these days?) Besides, there really is an art to effective prospecting and timing the buy and sell market correctly. I think that for each of my successes, I can also recount a circumstance where I guessed wrong on a guy and took one in the shorts.
The beauty of it though, is that I find that I am learning something new all the time, things to look for in players, the psychology of the Ebay buyer, how to effectively market a product, good resources for research and purchasing, etc.
I hope that I didn’t come off as pompous or too nerdy in my previous comment, I just love what I do. Baseball is the greatest sport invented and anything that brings us closer to the game can’t be a bad thing!
Best wishes Jeff in your collecting endeavors!
Jeremy